KAJIAN PENERAPAN METODE PERAMALAN PADA ILMU EKONOMI DAN ILMU KOMPUTER (Studi Kasus : Penerimaan Mahasiswa Baru IBI Darmajaya)

Abstract

Forecasting is an activity to predict what might happen in the future. Forecasting is very useful in daily life of personal interests or institutional interests, for example, weather prediction, marketing prediction, earthquakes prediction, prediction of number of students, etc. There are so many forecasting methods in economic science. One which developed by researchers, is quantitative forecasting method. This method is divided into two types. There are regression method and time series method. Time series methodisa methodthat iswidely usedin researchbecause of its capability toresolvea widevarietyof casesand capability to analyzingtime series data. There are several types of time seriesmethods, such as ARIMA, Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, Time Series Regression, etc. Beside that,forecastingmethodscan alsobe developedin computer scienceby usingthe concept ofartificial intelligence, such as: FuzzyTime Series, NeuralNetworks, andGenetic Algorithm. Econometric modelsusing theconceptof artificial 249
intelligenceis able tostudy the behavior ofexisting data, so that the forecasting will be more accurate.Results from this study is the analysis of the application of forecasting methods in the field of economics, especially using econometric regression models and computer science using the concept of artificial intelligence, artificial neural network method.

Key words : forecasting, Neural Network, Regression